The honest readout of how well your brain's commitments survive contact with reality.
Predictions you've claimed a probability for are binned, scored against actual outcomes,
and aggregated by owner and by atom property. Lower Brier = better calibrated. 0.25
is what an uninformative coin-flipper scores.
Reliability diagram
axis #17 · calibration_reliability
Each bin: claimed probability vs realized outcome. The diagonal is perfect calibration. Below the diagonal means over-confident at that level; above means under-confident.
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Per-owner win rate
axis #6 · owner_calibration
Win rate = (succeeded + 0.5 × partial) / (succeeded + partial + failed). Retracted predictions are excluded — walking back a commitment is intellectual honesty, not failure.
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Atom reputation distribution
axis #6 · atom_calibration
Aggregate reputation_score across atoms, grouped by a property. Atoms that consistently feed projections whose chosen direction succeeds accumulate positive reputation; atoms that consistently steer toward losing alternatives accumulate negative.
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Confidence calibration
axis #11 · confidence_calibration
For each atom-confidence level (1-5), what's the average outcome of the predictions those atoms fed into? Perfectly-calibrated confidence-5 atoms produce 0.95-rate outcomes; over-confident teams see flat lines.
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Brain links
axis #12 · cross-brain consent
Cross-brain read consent. Outgoing: this brain shares with another.
Incoming: this brain reads from another. Active links unlock cross-brain atom citation in synthesize_projection, cross-brain search, and cross-brain consensus.
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Propose a new brain link
Counterfactual retraction
axis #22 · counterfactual_retract
"If I retract this atom right now, what would shake loose?" — combines forward-chain (artifacts that depend on the atom) with grounded-extension recompute (atoms whose acceptance status would flip). Pure simulation; nothing is changed.
The atom can be in any brain you have read access to.
Cross-brain consensus
axis #20 · cross_brain_consensus
Across the brains this brain reads from via active brain_links, where do they agree on a claim vs disagree? Pairs above min_consensus_sim are consensus; pairs between min_disagree_sim and consensus are topical overlap — most decision-relevant when the pair differs on standpoint or atom type.
Enter a topic and search. Within-brain pairs are excluded — that's what detect_conflicts covers.
Atoms placed on three concentric rings by Dung-grounded status: accepted (defensible, inner ring) ·
undecided (locked in cycles, middle) ·
rejected (attacked by accepted, outer).
Red arrows are attacks; green arrows are supports. Hover an atom for its body and confidence.